Heat pump vs gas furnace in winter: how to pick the right one for your home

When you stand in front of a big winter bill, one question hits hard: am I better off with a heat pump or a gas furnace?

The honest answer: it depends on your climate, your rates, and your house. The goal of this guide is to give you a clear way to compare the two so you can choose a system that matches your winter reality, not a generic slogan.

If you have a Heat Pump vs Furnace Calculator on hand, keep it nearby. You can plug in your numbers as you read.

One-minute setup (do this first)

• Grab your latest electric bill for the cents per kWh line.
• Grab your latest gas bill for the dollars per therm line.
• Open the Heat Pump vs Furnace Calculator and enter those two rates plus your winter climate (mixed, cold, or mild).

Now every example below will translate into your dollars, not averages.

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Quick answer: when each one wins in winter

If you want the headline before the details:

• Heat pump tends to win in winter when

  • electricity prices are moderate,
  • winters are mild or mixed,
  • you want both heating and cooling in one system,
  • you care about lower emissions over the next 10–15 years.

• Gas furnace tends to win in winter when

  • natural gas is cheap in your area,
  • winters are long and harsh,
  • your house is still leaky and under-insulated,
  • you need high supply temperatures during deep cold.

• Hybrid or dual fuel systems earn their keep when

  • you want heat pump efficiency during most of the season,
  • you still want a gas furnace to carry the coldest days,
  • your region offers incentives for both.

The rest of this guide helps you figure out which bucket you live in.

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What you are really comparing in winter

Forget labels for a moment. Think about how each system makes heat on a cold day.

How a heat pump heats in winter

A heat pump is an air conditioner that can run backward. In heating mode it:

• pulls heat from outside air,
• uses electricity to move that heat indoors,
• blows warm air into your ducts or through indoor wall units.

Because it moves heat instead of making it from scratch, a heat pump can deliver two to three units of heat for every unit of electricity it draws, even in cold weather when designed for that climate. Studies and field data from the U.S. Department of Energy and others report heating efficiencies in that range for air source heat pumps, with cold climate models maintaining strong performance at lower temperatures and holding usable capacity near 5°F instead of falling off a cliff.

You will see this expressed as a coefficient of performance, or COP:

• COP 1.0: 1 unit of electricity in, 1 unit of heat out.
• COP 2.5: 1 unit of electricity in, 2.5 units of heat out.

Higher COP in winter means more heat per dollar of electricity. Real-life seasonal COP in cold and mixed climates often averages between roughly 1.7 and 3.0 once you account for defrost cycles and temperature swings.

How a gas furnace heats in winter

A gas furnace burns natural gas and sends the heat through a heat exchanger into your ducts. The main efficiency rating is AFUE:

• Older furnaces: sometimes 60–80 percent AFUE.
• Standard newer models: around 80–90 percent.
• High efficiency models: about 90–98 percent AFUE.

AFUE 95 percent means 95 percent of the gas energy becomes heat in your home, while 5 percent leaves through the vent.

In winter, a gas furnace does not lose as much efficiency as outdoor temperatures fall. Fuel burns the same way on a mild day and a very cold night. That steadiness is one reason gas holds an edge in some deep cold climates where electricity is expensive.

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How winter efficiency works: COP vs AFUE

Winter exposes the real differences between a heat pump and a furnace.

Heat pump efficiency falls with temperature

As outdoor air gets colder, a standard air source heat pump has to work harder to pull heat out of that air. That extra work lowers COP.

• On a cool fall day, a good heat pump can run at COP 3 or higher.
• Around freezing, many systems land in the COP 2–3 range.
• In deep cold, older units slide toward COP 1, and backup electric resistance strips turn on.

Cold climate heat pumps are different. Newer designs hold high efficiency deeper into winter and keep full heating capacity down toward 5 to 0 degrees Fahrenheit in many cases.

Even then, your winter COP will not stay at the peak number on the brochure. Real life performance averages over temperature swings, defrost cycles, and part load operation.

Gas furnace efficiency stays steady

A condensing gas furnace does not care much if it is 35 degrees or 5 degrees outside. If the unit is maintained and venting correctly, AFUE remains close to its rated value across the season.

That means:

• Gas efficiency is predictable in winter.
• Heat pump efficiency is high but more sensitive to temperature and design.

Efficiency, however, is only half the story. The other half is energy price.

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Operating cost in winter: the simple math

You do not need a full spreadsheet to compare winter cost. You only need three pieces of information:

• Your electricity price per kWh.
• Your natural gas price per therm.
• Realistic efficiency numbers for each system.

From there, think in terms of cost per unit of heat delivered.

Step 1: estimate heat pump cost per unit of heat

Take:

• electricity price (cents per kWh) from your bill,
• a realistic seasonal COP (use 2.0–3.0 unless you have colder design data).

Cost per kWh of heat delivered is:

• electricity price ÷ COP.

Example with a recent U.S. average electric rate of about $0.17 per kWh and a seasonal COP of 2.5:

• $0.17 ÷ 2.5 ≈ $0.068 per kWh of heat.

If your local rate is higher or your COP lower, this number rises.

Step 2: estimate gas furnace cost per unit of heat

Natural gas is usually priced in therms:

• 1 therm ≈ 29.3 kWh of heat energy.

Take:

• gas price from your bill (dollars per therm),
• furnace AFUE.

Cost per kWh of heat delivered is:

• convert price per therm to price per kWh: gas price ÷ 29.3,
• divide by AFUE.

Example with a recent U.S. average gas price of about $1.70 per therm and a 95 percent AFUE furnace:

• $1.70 ÷ 29.3 ≈ $0.058 per kWh of fuel energy,
• $0.058 ÷ 0.95 ≈ $0.061 per kWh of heat delivered.

In this example:

• Heat pump heat costs about 6.8 cents per kWh of heat.
• Gas furnace heat costs about 6.1 cents per kWh of heat.

That is nearly a tie. With cheaper electricity, a higher COP, or pricier gas, the heat pump pulls ahead. Swap any of those the other way and the furnace wins. Your calculator lets you test those swaps quickly.

Recent analysis from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory found that high efficiency heat pumps can cut site energy use for heating by roughly one third to nearly half compared with furnaces on average. Energy cost savings are smaller in regions where gas prices are low relative to electricity, and larger where electric rates and incentives align.

This is why you need local math. National averages hide the swings that matter to you.

A calculator that lets you plug in your own:

• electric rate,
• gas rate,
• furnace efficiency,
• estimated heat pump COP or HSPF,

will give a much clearer answer than any generic rule.

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Comfort in winter: how each system feels

Money matters. Comfort matters too, especially on winter nights.

Heat pump comfort profile

Heat pumps:

• deliver warm air at lower supply temperatures than gas furnaces,
• run longer, steadier cycles,
• keep room temperature more even across the day.

Many people like the steady feeling because rooms swing less from hot to cool. In a tight, well insulated home, that steady warmth feels solid even when outdoor air is below freezing.

If your home is leaky, you may notice:

• cooler air from vents than you expect,
• longer run times,
• backup electric strips turning on in deep cold.

Cold climate systems reduce those problems by keeping higher capacity in low temperatures and modulating output instead of snapping on and off.

Gas furnace comfort profile

Gas furnaces:

• send air into the ducts at higher temperatures,
• often run shorter, more intense cycles,
• are familiar to many homeowners.

Rooms tend to heat up faster after setback. Some people like the blast of hot air when the system turns on, especially in old, drafty houses.

The tradeoff:

• temperature swings can be larger between cycles,
• oversizing can make cycles even shorter and less efficient,
• comfort can suffer in rooms with poor duct design.

In winter, a well sized gas furnace still delivers a strong comfort experience, especially in homes that are not yet well sealed.

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Climate: where you live changes the answer

The same equipment performs very differently in Miami, St. Louis, and Minneapolis. Before you pick a side in the heat pump vs gas furnace debate, anchor your thinking in climate.

Mild winter climates

Examples: parts of the South, coastal regions, marine climates.

• Winter design temperatures rarely dip far below freezing.
• Heating demand is moderate and cooling demand often dominates the annual picture.

In these regions:

• A heat pump often offers the best all around package:

  • high efficiency for both heating and cooling,
  • reasonable winter operating cost,
  • no gas line or combustion equipment to maintain.

Many homes in these climates already use electricity as the main heating fuel. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reports that electricity is now the main heating source in about 43 percent of U.S. households (2023 data), with electric shares higher in the South and lower in the Northeast.

Mixed and cold climates

Examples: much of the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, New England, inland Northwest.

• Winter temperatures frequently fall below freezing.
• Heating dominates annual energy use. Recent EIA data shows that space heating alone accounts for roughly 43 percent of residential energy consumption on average.

In these climates, the answer is more nuanced:

• Cold climate heat pumps paired with good air sealing and insulation can carry most or all winter load, with lower emissions and good comfort.
• High efficiency gas furnaces remain cost competitive when gas is cheap, particularly in older, leaky housing stock.
• Hybrid systems that use a heat pump above a set outdoor temperature and a gas furnace below that balance cost, comfort, and resilience.

If you live where deep cold snaps are common and power outages are more than a rare event, backup options deserve serious weight.

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When a heat pump is the stronger winter choice

You lean toward a heat pump for winter heating when most of these statements match your situation.

• Electricity rates are moderate compared to gas prices.
• You need both heating and cooling and plan to replace an aging AC anyway.
• Your house has, or will have, solid air sealing and insulation within the next few years.
• You want to cut emissions and plan to stay in the home long enough to benefit from lower energy use.
• You are comfortable relying on electric heat with appropriate backup planning.

Recent work from RMI and NREL finds that swapping gas furnaces for efficient heat pumps can cut emissions across the continental U.S., often by large margins, especially as the grid adds more renewables.

If your long term plan includes solar, a heat pump also lines up well because it converts more of that homegrown electricity into useful heat compared with resistance electric heating.

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When a gas furnace still makes sense in winter

You lean toward keeping or installing a gas furnace when most of these fit.

• Natural gas is cheap where you live and is likely to stay that way for a while.
• Winters are long and severe, and deep cold is common.
• Your home is older, leaky, and you will not overhaul the shell soon.
• You value the simplicity and known behavior of a gas system during cold snaps.
• You want to minimize upfront cost and your existing ductwork and venting set up well for a replacement furnace.

A high efficiency furnace paired with targeted shell work can still lower winter bills significantly compared with an old 60–70 percent unit. In some markets, operating cost for a heat pump and a high efficiency furnace land within a narrow band, but in others the furnace wins when electric rates climb faster than gas rates.

This is another case where a calculator that lets you test several rate and efficiency combinations is more useful than any blanket rule.

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When a hybrid system is the right winter compromise

A hybrid, or dual fuel, setup combines both:

• a heat pump for most of the season,
• a gas furnace for the coldest hours.

The Department of Energy describes these systems as a way to get heat pump efficiency in milder weather with a furnace that steps in when a gas flame makes more sense.

This approach can:

• keep your home comfortable during cold snaps without relying on electric resistance strips,
• cut gas use and emissions compared with a furnace alone,
• hedge against future fuel price swings by letting you set the balance point where each system runs.

Hybrid systems add complexity and cost compared with a single unit. The smart way to decide is to run the numbers with your own rates and temperatures, not only the installer’s default settings.

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Emissions and long term direction

If emissions and long term policy direction matter to you, this part matters.

• Multiple analyses show that moving from gas furnaces to efficient heat pumps cuts space heating emissions in every U.S. state, with reductions up to the 90 percent range in some grids when combined with building upgrades.
• As more renewables come online, each kWh you use for heating tends to get cleaner over the life of the equipment.

Gas use for heating remains high, and gas infrastructure decisions often lock in emissions for decades.

This does not mean everyone must rip out gas systems tomorrow. It does mean that when you replace heating equipment that will likely run for 15 to 20 years, you are making a long term bet. A heat pump shifts that bet toward an increasingly clean grid, while a furnace keeps you tied to gas.

You get to decide how much weight to put on that factor compared with bills and comfort.

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How to decide for your home in 5 steps

Here is a simple path that matches the rest of your planning process.

1. Map your current energy use

   • Gather last 12 months of gas and electric bills.
   • Use a bill breakdown tool to estimate how much you spend on space heating in a normal year.

2. Check your house shell

   • If your attic, walls, and basement are under-insulated and leaky, plan shell upgrades first.
   • A tighter shell improves comfort for any system and lowers the size you need to buy.

3. Run local cost scenarios

   • Enter your electricity and gas rates into a Heat Pump vs Furnace Calculator.

   • Test:

     • a high efficiency furnace,
     • a standard heat pump,
     • a cold climate heat pump,
     • a hybrid setup.

   • Use realistic COP and AFUE values, not brochure peaks.

4. Layer on incentives and future plans

   • Check federal, state, and utility incentives for heat pumps and efficiency.
   • If you aim to install solar or electrify other loads later, note how a heat pump fits into that path.

5. Talk to contractors with a plan in hand

   • Share your goals, bill data, and calculator results.

   • Ask each contractor to explain:

     • how they sized the equipment,
     • what winter performance you should expect,
     • how their design handles cold snaps and outages.

Then compare your notes against your priorities: lowest operating cost, lowest emissions, highest resilience, or a balance of all three.

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Quick FAQ: heat pump vs gas furnace in winter

Will a heat pump keep my house warm in deep winter? A cold climate heat pump sized and installed correctly can heat a tight home through most or all of winter in many regions, even below freezing. In deep cold areas or leaky homes, you may still want backup heat, either through a gas furnace in a hybrid system or electric resistance strips.

Is a heat pump always cheaper to run than a gas furnace in winter? No. When gas is cheap and electricity is expensive, a high efficiency gas furnace can beat a heat pump on pure winter operating cost. When electricity is cheaper relative to gas, or when you value both heating and cooling efficiency together, a heat pump often pulls ahead. Local rates decide this more than national averages.

What if I only care about winter, not summer cooling? If cooling demand is low where you live and you do not care about AC, a high efficiency furnace plus shell upgrades can be a strong path. If summers are warming where you live and you expect to want AC in the future, a heat pump pulls double duty and deserves a closer look.

Does a heat pump always cut emissions compared with gas? Across the continental U.S., studies show that efficient heat pumps reduce space heating emissions compared with gas furnaces when you look over the life of the equipment, especially as the grid continues to add renewables. The exact reduction depends on your local grid mix and how tight your home is.

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When you run the numbers with your own bills and climate, the choice between a heat pump and a gas furnace in winter stops being an abstract debate. It becomes a clear, written plan that lines up with your comfort, your wallet, and your long term goals.